OpenAI's IPO Narrative Has a ChatGPT Problem

ChatGPT’s user growth is decelerating at an inopportune moment. The app’s monthly active user growth dropped from 168% year-over-year in January to 78% in April 2026, while Anthropic’s Claude posted an 11x download surge in the same window — and OpenAI is actively contemplating a public market debut.

ChatGPT’s Uninstall Surge

According to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower, as reported by The Verge, ChatGPT’s app uninstalls jumped 132% year-over-year in April 2026. March was even starker: a 413% spike that coincided with OpenAI’s Pentagon contract announced in February. ChatGPT still holds a considerably larger installed base than any single rival, but trajectory matters as much as absolute count when investors are sizing up a company.

Claude Outpaces on Downloads

The Verge reports that ChatGPT’s download growth over the past several months has been a modest 14% year-over-year. Claude, by contrast, recorded an 11x increase in downloads across the same period. That differential is striking even accounting for Claude’s smaller starting base — an 11x gap signals a meaningful reallocation of consumer attention. Anthropic appears to have benefited from enterprise partnerships and a reputation among technical users for long-context performance, though the source data does not break down the growth drivers.

IPO Ambitions Meet a Revenue Shortfall

The Wall Street Journal, as cited by The Verge, reports that OpenAI has fallen short of its own benchmarks on user acquisition and revenue growth. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar has reportedly raised concerns about the company’s IPO timeline, and internal worry has surfaced that slower revenue could jeopardize funding for future computing infrastructure.

Why This Matters

A public offering demands a credible growth narrative. Decelerating user momentum and missed internal targets complicate that pitch to institutional investors. If OpenAI cannot demonstrate re-accelerating adoption before a roadshow, it faces a harder pricing conversation — and rival Anthropic’s trajectory only heightens the contrast.